Germans in the state of Brandenburg were voting in a regional election on Sunday with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) expected to finish first, building on successes in other eastern states and beating Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats in one of their traditional strongholds.
The AfD became the first far-right party to win a state election in Germany since World War II, in Thuringia, on September 1 and just missed first place in Saxony on the same day.
However, other parties refuse to work with the AfD in coalition governments and given it did not win a majority in Thuringia or Saxony and is unlikely to do so in Brandenburg, the party is not set to be part of a regional government.
The AfD is one of several far-right groups in Europe capitalising on worries over an economic slowdown, immigration and the Ukraine war – concerns that are particularly strong in formerly Communist eastern Germany. It is also seeking to gain from discontent over infighting in Scholz’s three-party federal coalition.
Hans-Christoph Berndt, the AfD candidate for Brandenburg state premier, cast his ballot in the town of Golssen, south of Berlin, expressing optimism about his party’s prospects compared to the last state election in 2019.
“If we continue to receive the same level of support we’ve seen in recent weeks and months, things in Germany will start to improve,” Berndt said, adding that while the election was important, Brandenburg’s future wouldn’t be decided solely by Sunday’s outcome.
An AfD victory in the state election would be a particular embarrassment for the Social Democrats (SPD), which has won elections in Brandenburg and governed the state of 2.5 million people since East and West Germany were reunified in 1990.
It would also raise further questions about the suitability of Scholz, the least popular German chancellor on record, to lead the party into next year’s federal election.
Brandenburg’s popular SPD premier, Dietmar Woidke, has mostly shunned campaigning with Scholz, who lives in the state’s capital, Potsdam. Woidke has also criticised the country’s ruling coalition’s behaviour and policies.
Instead, he has sought to highlight economic successes during the five years since the last state election such as the opening of a Tesla factory and Brandenburg airport – which serves Berlin and is now Germany’s third most important aviation hub.
In recent weeks, opinion polls have shown the SPD narrowing the gap with the AfD.
A poll published by pollster Forschungsgruppe Wahlen on Thursday put the AfD on 28% in Brandenburg with the SPD on 27%, followed by the conservatives on 14% and the new leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) on 13%.
“My greatest challenge in this legislative period … is to not allow right-wing extremists to have anything to say in this country ever again,” Woidke said at a campaign event on Tuesday.
He has threatened to resign if his party comes in behind the AfD. AfD national party leader Tino Chrupalla said Scholz should do the same.
“It is high time this government suffer the consequences after this state election,” Chrupalla said.
Both of Scholz’s junior coalition partners, the Free Democrats and the Greens, look set to struggle to win the 5% needed to enter the state parliament, polls show.
At a national level, the three parties in Scholz’s coalition are now collectively polling less than the opposition conservatives although political analysts say much could change before the federal election due in September 2025.