Asian shares slid anew on Monday, getting little lift from a surprise rate cut by China’s central bank, while Wall Street futures firmed in the wake of President Joe Biden’s decision to bow out of the election race.
The People’s Bank of China cut short-term rates by 10 basis points, which pulled down long-term borrowing costs and bond yields. The move follows Beijing’s release of a policy document on Sunday outlining its ambitions for the economy.
Investors seemed underwhelmed with the move, in part as it only emphasised how weak the economy was, and Chinese blue chips slipped 0.9 per cent along with the yuan.
“Basically all the fundamental factors point to the fact that China needs a lower rate environment, especially the real rate is really high…in this kind of disinflationary environment,” said Gary Ng, Asia-Pacific senior economist at Natixis in Hong Kong.
“I think the general trend is that it’s pretty much in line with the fact that the economy is not that great, and it seems that there’s a bit of urgency from the authorities to stimulate it now.”
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost another 0.7 per cent, having shed 3 per cent last week.
Japan’s Nikkei dropped 1.2 per cent and South Korea’s benchmark index fell 1.3 per cent. Taiwan was having another tough session with a loss of 2.3 per cent amid concerns about U.S. restrictions on chip sales.
Investors seemed much better prepared for news President Biden would drop out of the election race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic ticket.
Online betting site PredictIT showed pricing for a victory by Donald Trump had fallen 4 cents to 60 cents, while Harris climbed 12 cents to 39 cents. California governor Gavin Newsom, another possible Democratic challenger, trailed at 4 cents.
Markets took the news in their stride, with S&P 500 stock futures nudging up 0.1 per cent, while Nasdaq futures added 0.2 per cent. Futures for 10-year Treasuries rose 2 ticks, while 10-year bond yields dipped 2 basis point to 4.22 per cent.
EUROSTOXX 50 futures added 0.5 per cent, while FTSE futures firmed 0.4 per cent.
“As Trump’s polling results have lifted, markets have favoured positions that anticipate more trade barriers and possibly higher inflation,” ANZ analysts said.
“Some polls have Harris performing better than Biden against Trump, and the Democrats will be hoping the next polls feature a Harris-driven bump.”
Eye on earnings
A packed week of corporate earnings will see Tesla and Google-parent Alphabet kick off the season for the “Magnificent Seven” megacap group of stocks.
Others reporting include General Electric, General Motors, Ford and Lockheed Martin.
The tech sector is projected to increase year-over-year earnings by 17 per cent, while profit for the communication services sector is seen rising about 22 per cent.
Such gains would outpace the 11 per cent estimated rise for the S&P 500 overall, according to LSEG IBES.
Europe’s biggest banks also report this week, with eyes on whether the gains from higher interest rates have run out of steam and if recent political drama is weighing on sentiment.
A busy week for economic news will culminate with the Federal Reserve’s favoured inflation measure out on Friday. The core personal consumption expenditures index is seen rising 0.1 per cent in June, pulling the annual pace down a tick to 2.5 per cent.
Markets are wagering heavily that a benign outcome will firm the case for a September rate cut, which futures are pricing as a 97 per cent chance.
Also due are figures for advance gross domestic product that are forecast to show growth picking up to an annualised 1.9 per cent in the second quarter, from 1.4 per cent in the first.
The closely watched Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator points to growth of 2.7 per cent, suggesting some risk to the upside.
The Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday and is considered almost certain to cut its rates by a quarter point to 4.5 per cent.
In currency markets, the dollar gave back just a little of last week’s safe haven gains as the euro edged up 0.1 per cent to $1.0886. The dollar was a fraction softer on the Japanese yen at 157.27.
In commodity markets, gold held at $2,406 an ounce and short of last week’s record high of $2,483.60.
Oil prices inched higher, with scant sign of progress on a ceasefire deal in Gaza as Israeli forces battled Palestinian fighters in the southern city of Rafah on Sunday.
Brent gained 44 cents to $83.07 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 41 cents to $80.54 per barrel.