Asian shares outside Japan edged lower on Tuesday as investors pondered what a Trump victory would mean for China, while the yen resumed its slide, prompting fresh warnings from officials after last week’s suspected intervention.
Europe is set to open lower, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures down 0.3%. S&P 500 futures gained 0.2% and Nasdaq futures firmed 0.3% after dovish Fed comments fuelled bets of more U.S. rate cuts this year, lifting Wall Street.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.3%, extending Monday’s 0.3% decline. Japan returned from a public holiday and the Nikkei index rose 0.3%.
Overnight, investors continued to digest the fallout from the attempted assassination on Saturday of former U.S. President Donald Trump, who nominated J.D. Vance on Monday as his vice presidential running mate.
Opinion polls show a close race between Trump and President Joe Biden, though Trump leads in several swing states that are likely to decide the election.
The Dow Jones hit a record closing high, thanks to energy and banking shares. Bitcoin jumped, gold climbed towards a record high and the yield curve steepened as investors favoured so called Trump-victory trades.
“J.D. Vance sits in the camp of taking China on head-first in a bid for improved trade deals for the U.S., and this will only weigh on sentiment towards China,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.
The Shanghai Composite index fell 0.1%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lost 1.4%, having already dropped 1.5% the day before as soft economic data from China heightened the risk that Beijing could miss its 5% growth target this year, barring forceful stimulus.
Both Taiwanese and South Korean shares edged up 0.2%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday the three U.S. inflation readings over the second quarter do “add somewhat to confidence” that inflation is returning to the Fed’s target in a sustainable fashion.
Markets have now fully priced in a quarter-point rate cut from the Fed in September, with a total easing of 68 basis points (bps) expected by the end of the year.
That kept a lid on the U.S. dollar overnight, although it was 0.1% firmer on Tuesday against a basket of major currencies, thanks to the renewed yen weakness.
The yen lost 0.4% to 158.67 per dollar, struggling to hold on to the gains after Tokyo’s suspected intervention last week disrupted the popular carry trade.
It also drew fresh warnings from Japanese officials that the government stands ready to take all possible measures to counter excessively volatile currency moves.
“I actually have bought dollars here. I think the U.S. dollar has probably bottomed for now,” said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG. “We’ve had the reaction out of the soft CPI data and the dovish Powell. And I think the risks to the dollar are to the upside here.”
“The idea the Trump administration is more likely to get to the White House and increase tariffs on China, that’s not a good thing at all for Chinese stocks. Put that together with the higher U.S. dollar and higher yields, I think it’s going to be a tough time for Hang Seng.”
Long-term Treasuries found their footing in Asia, with the 10-year yield off 2 bps at 4.2060%, having risen 4 bps overnight.
Gold rose 0.3% to $2,428.67 an ounce, nearing a record high.
Oil prices ticked down on worries that slowing Chinese economy would crimp demand.
Brent futures fell 0.3% to $84.63 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 0.3% to $81.64.