The world’s airways will have just over 50,000 commercial aircraft in 2043, almost double the current number, according to a forecast released Friday by Boeing.
The global fleet will “nearly double over the next 20 years,” with about half of deliveries consisting of new models with greater fuel efficiency to replace older jets, according to the forecast.
“The balance between replacement and growth is very close, about 50-50,” said Darren Hulst, vice president of marketing for Boeing’s commercial aviation division.
Of the nearly 44,000 new planes to be delivered between now and 2043, more than 33,000 are single-aisle and 8,000 dual-aisle planes.
While airlines have announced ambitious orders to update their fleets, both Boeing and European rival Airbus have faced supply chain shortfalls that have pushed back the timeframe on many plane deliveries.
That has resulted in fewer retirements of old planes. In the 2020-2023 period, the removal rate of planes was half the pace of the 2010s decade as carriers stick with older planes to meet travel demand.
But fewer than one third of the 26,750 planes currently in service will still be operating in 20 years.
The forecast estimates that passenger air traffic will rise an average of 4.7 percent annually, outpacing the 3.2 percent growth in the airplane fleet.
Airlines are meeting demand by “increasing load factors and using airplanes more hours per day,” Boeing said.
The analysis also points to the imperative for extensive hiring of aviation maintenance and other workers, with a global need of 85 million people in 2043, around double the current level and whose cost of services amount to an estimated $4.4 trillion.
Airbus, which released its forecast on July 15, also expects a doubling of the global commercial airplane market over the next 20 years.