While trade wars, tariffs, and wavering subsidies are very much in the cards for the auto industry in 2025, global sales of electric vehicles (EVs) are still expected to rise substantially next year, according to S&P Global Mobility.
“2025 is shaping up to be ultra-challenging for the auto industry, as key regional demand factors limit demand potential and the new U.S. administration adds fresh uncertainty from day one,” says Colin Couchman, executive director of global light vehicle forecasting for S&P Global Mobility.
In the U.S., the incoming Trump administration is reportedly planning to end the $7,500 tax incentive on the purchase or lease of an EV, as well as other measures that provide support for both EV manufacturing and sales.
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In addition, Trump wants to impose steep tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, among others. Affected countries are expected to retaliate with their own tariffs.
Yet, in spite of these adverse factors, EVs remain an “important automotive growth sector” globally. S&P says incentive programs in China, Asia, and Europe will continue to support EVs for the foreseeable future.
S&P projects global sales of EVs will reach 15.1 million units in 2025, up 30% from an estimated 11.6 million units in 2024. EV market share is expected to grow to 16.7% of global light vehicle sales, up from 13.2% in 2024.
China is leading the pack, with EV sales expected to reach 26.6 million in 2025, up 3% from 2024 levels, led by the likes of BYD, Changan, and Tesla. The market share of EVs is expected to reach 29.7% of Chinese vehicle sales.
EV sales in India and in Japan are also expected to grow strongly next year.
Even in the U.S., EV market share is expected to continue to grow from 2024 levels, topping the 10% mark to reach 11.2% of overall vehicle sales, S&P says.
While Trump’s policies are “predictably unpredictable,” S&P says deregulation should still create tailwinds for the North American auto industry.
In addition, California has indicated it will seek to revive state-tax rebates for electric vehicles should the Trump administration end federal incentives. Cumulative EV sales in California topped 2 million units in the third quarter, or nearly 40% of overall U.S. EV sales.