The rupee appreciated by 4 paise to 83.06 against the US dollar (Dh22.63) on Monday, influenced by a positive trend in domestic equities, with benchmark indices reaching new peaks.
Forex traders noted that the weakening of the American currency in the international market supported the rupee, while high crude oil prices limited its rise. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 83.08 and strengthened to 83.06 against the dollar, marking a 4 paise gain from its previous close.
On Friday, the rupee had rallied for the fourth straight session
Investors will closely watch the first reading of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) of 2024 on Thursday and the final reading of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) for April on Friday. On the Indian docket, the GDP growth number for the fourth quarter of 2023 will be released on Friday. If the Indian economy shows a weaker-than-expected growth, this could weigh on the INR and cap the downside for the pair.
Asian shares firmed on Monday as investors braced for a busy run of inflation data that could set the scene for a European rate cut as soon as next week and a U.S. policy easing within just a few months.
Holidays in Britain and the United States made for thin trading ahead of Friday’s figures on core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.
Median forecasts are for a rise of 0.3% in April, keeping the annual pace at 2.8%, with risks on the downside.
“Consumer and producer price data suggest core PCE inflation lost further momentum in April after a strong start to the year,” analysts at TD Securities said in a note.
“Indeed, we look for the core index to advance 0.22% m/m vs 0.32% in March and an initial 0.25% estimate,” they added.
“We also look for the headline to rise 0.23% m/m while the super core likely cooled to 0.26%.”