US presidential election races traditionally throw up an October “surprise” that jolts the duelling campaigns before voting day.
The 2024 edition has already thrown up three political earthquakes — and it’s only mid-July.
For a race between two elderly men who have already done this once before, the Joe Biden-Donald Trump rematch has produced an extraordinary mix of history-making precedent and near-unimaginable drama.
“We the jury have a verdict” — six simple words on a handwritten note that initiated on May 30 the final act of something Americans had never witnessed before: the criminal trial of a former president.
Less than an hour later, the jury foreman stood up in a Manhattan courtroom, answered “guilty” and placed Donald Trump even more firmly in the history books as the first former incumbent of the White House to be criminally convicted.
And then in quick succession, “guilty” “guilty” “guilty,” for a grand total of 34 counts, while Trump sat motionless with his lawyers.
Trump left the court a felon — a historic and startling first in a country where presidents are frequently described as the most powerful person in the world.
But as is so often the case, he sought — not unsuccessfully — to turn the situation to his advantage, hitting the campaign trail with his allegations of a witch hunt and politically-inspired persecution.
For Joe Biden, the moment of judgment came not in a courtroom but on the debate stage.
A catastrophic performance in his one-on-one televised showdown with Trump on June 27 triggered a sense of total panic within his Democratic Party that has yet to fully play out.
Biden’s hesitant, uncertain and meandering remarks — all delivered in a raspy voice — underscored long-held concerns about his physical and mental fitness to serve a second term in the White House if he wins the November 5 ballot.
Since the debate debacle, every public appearance and utterance by Biden has been subjected to intense scrutiny, and every day has seemed to bring a fresh call from someone in his party to withdraw his candidacy.
Biden has vowed to stay in the race, but his position remains extremely vulnerable.
Then, on July 13, the most shocking moment of all for a country that has lived through the trauma of multiple presidential assassination bids in the past.
Just minutes into a speech at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, shots rang out and Trump dropped behind his podium, clutching the right side of his face in his hand.
As Secret Service agents rushed him from the stage he turned to the crowd, raising his fist as blood trickled down over his ear.
The shooting is set to define much of the campaign that follows, although the precise impact it may have on voter intentions remains unclear.