Venezuela’s opposition coalition is still pushing for recognition of what it says is its resounding victory in last month’s presidential election but its options are narrowing as international attention is drawn elsewhere, opposition sources and analysts said.
Electoral authorities declared President Nicolas Maduro won a third term in the July 28 contest, while tallies collected by the opposition show a victory for opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez.
Decrying electoral fraud by Maduro, demonstrators took to the streets. The protests, classed by the government as fascist violence, have killed 23 people and led to some 2,400 arrests.
It is a familiar scenario for Venezuela, where protests, sanctions and the declaration of an opposition-led interim presidency that was recognised by Western countries have all failed to dislodge Maduro in recent years.
With military leaders vowing to stand by him, the opposition’s paths forward look limited.
For now, the opposition is focusing its response on a demand for the publication of full voting tallies, according to four opposition sources who declined to be named. They said the opposition was open to negotiations with the ruling party and is hoping international pressure could eventually bear fruit.
Gonzalez and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who spearheaded his campaign, have also called for supporters to keep up protests, with Machado floating the idea of possible incentives for ruling party figures to leave power.
The government had so far refused to enter talks “because within the ruling party there is not an agreed position,” Machado told journalists this week. “There are groups who are clearly willing to negotiate and press for that to occur, and others who are not, who are dug in and willing to do anything.”
Tallies in possession of the opposition and posted online show Gonzalez won some 7 million votes, more than double Maduro’s 3.3 million. The numbers are in line with independent exit polling.
The national electoral council has not published full tallies, but says Maduro won with around 51% of the vote. Its website has been down since the early hours of July 29.
Venezuela’s top court – considered by the opposition to be an arm of the ruling party – has said it is still verifying results but that the opposition failed to give evidence of its tallies.
The government is also still reviewing its calculations about how many votes the opposition may have received, said a source close to the ruling party, declining to be named.
“A dialogue would have to recognise an electoral process where the opposition was the victor,” said Maria Isabel Puerta, professor of political science at Florida’s Valencia College, adding that conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine could pull international attention from Venezuela.
One opposition source said they were confident Brazil, Colombia and Mexico can exercise pressure over Maduro but “internal pressure must not cease.”
The United States, Argentina and Chile, among other countries, have repeatedly demanded the government publish full tallies, while Brazil, Colombia and Mexico – whose leaders have traditionally been more friendly with Maduro – are working to establish talks between Maduro and Gonzalez.
But Western nations, wary of the previous diplomatic failures, have shown few signs they plan to quickly implement tougher measures, including fresh sanctions, in response to the dispute.
Russia, China and others have congratulated Maduro on his victory.
“I feel that at least the willingness in not having completely closed the (communication) channel with Brazil, Mexico and Colombia is a good sign and we hope to see what happens this week, which I think is crucial,” Machado said.
Machado has ruled out repeating the election, two diplomatic sources told Reuters this week.
Asked last week if he would accept a conversation with Machado, Maduro said she should speak with the attorney general’s office.
“She should turn herself over to justice and show her face and respond for the crimes she has committed. That’s truthfully the only negotiation that fits,” he said.
The attorney general’s office said last week it was launching a criminal probe against opposition leaders, including Machado, for inciting police and military officials to break the law, conspiracy and other crimes.
The opposition “evidently won, but it doesn’t have the capacity to make its victory matter. The government lost and is trying to forcefully impose itself, which it can achieve, but at high cost,” said Ricardo Rios, director of Caracas consulting firm Poder y Estrategia. International isolation could damage already weak investment, Rios said, while governing via repression could increase instability.
In the meantime, demonstrations have continued, with some reduced attendance that advocates put down to fear of arrest. Machado and Gonzalez have called for more marches on Saturday.
Asked how long the opposition can continue its campaign over the results, Machado told journalists: “Nobody knows.”