Residents of the UAE should start preparing for unpredictable weather fluctuations, typical of the transition into the autumn season.
Changes in atmospheric pressure or wind patterns can shift weather unexpectedly, explained Dr Ahmed Habib, a climate expert from the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM).
While forecasts provide general predictions, local phenomena like mountains or bodies of water can create microclimates.
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In an interview with Khaleej Times on Monday, he said, “The transition period is marked by rapid and dramatic changes in weather during autumn which also happen during spring. For instance, you might enjoy stable weather today, only to find that the next day brings swift shifts to unstable conditions. This can result in sudden cloud cover and rain following a dry day.”
Decrease in temperature, increase in fog
He also pointed out that a pressure system is moving in from the north, accompanied by winds.
“Additionally, a low-pressure system is extending from the west, bringing moisture into the air. Convective clouds are expected to form over the UAE. Humidity levels will gradually rise, increasing the likelihood of fog, particularly at night and during early mornings, especially in coastal regions. As a result, the chance of fog formation is higher than during the summer,” added Habib.
The month of September is considered as the last month of summer, where temperatures start to decrease especially during night and the second half of the month.
The autumn equinox officially occurred on September 22 at 4.44 pm local time, when the Sun was directly aligned with the equator, resulting in equal sunlight for both the northern and southern hemispheres.
The most notable feature of the equinox is that day and night are approximately equal in length. This occurs because the Sun crosses the celestial equator, moving southward. After the equinox, days start to get shorter as we move toward winter.
The end of peak summer was signalled by the sighting of the Suhail star on August 24, often referred to as the ‘Star of Yemen’. Once the star is observed, a 40-day transition period occurs during which the weather shifts from extreme heat to cooler temperatures. This phase is commonly called ‘Sufriya’.
“In this (end September) month, the temperature doesn’t drop sharply. Instead between September and November, there’s an average decrease of about five degrees. Currently, temperatures range from 42°C to 45°C. By October, they will decrease by two to three degrees, bringing the range to 38°C to 42°C. In November, temperatures will further drop to around 35°C to 39°C,” said Habib.
Relative humidity increased slightly this month compared to August, particularly in the second half. The average relative humidity is 49 per cent, leading to a higher likelihood of fog and mist in various regions of the country.
Concurrently, the impact of the Indian monsoon depression is gradually weakening, while the country is currently influenced by desert thermal lows over the Arabian Peninsula. These are accompanied by relatively strong winds, which occasionally lead to dust storms and reduced horizontal visibility.
“In the Northern and eastern regions, there is a possibility of Cumulonimbus cloud formation, potentially bringing rain and thunderstorms. This could extend into the interior areas, with varying intensities of rainfall,” added Habib.
Habib clarified that this aligns with the UAE’s ‘climate’, referring to the long-term patterns of weather in a specific area, rather than the short-term forecast, which currently shows no rain over the next five days.
“During late nights and early mornings, southeasterly winds dominate, shifting to northwesterly in the afternoons and evenings due to land breeze circulation,” added the veteran weatherman.