Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates – May 18, 2026: Nvidia reports after the US close on Wednesday, and it’s comfortably the biggest event of the week for global markets. Shares are up over 65% in the last 12 months, lifting its market cap close to USD$5.5 trillion.
Josh Gilbert, Market Analyst at eToro
With that in mind, the bar is high. Consensus has revenue at USD$78.8 billion and adjusted EPS at USD$1.76, with data centre growth expected to accelerate to around 82% year-on-year. But a beat doesn’t always mean that shares rise. In 6 of its last 7 earnings reports, despite beating expectations, shares have fallen by more than 3.5% in the week following the result. With the stock running this hot into the print, the risk of a sell-the-news reaction is elevated, even on a strong result. Forward guidance is what the market tends to look to, but clearly, it’s after some seriously strong guidance to push the stock higher, because the bar keeps getting raised each time.
Josh Gilbert, Market Analyst at eToro, said:The China question remains unresolved, and Q1 guidance assumes zero China data centre revenue, so any easing of export controls is pure upside that isn’t yet priced in. Another area of focus outside of data centre revenue will be networking. Modern AI workloads are run across thousands of chips working together, and those chips need to talk to each other at enormous speed. Nvidia’s networking business sells switches, cables, and the connectivity layer that ties everything together in a data centre. Networking revenue hit a record USD$11 billion last quarter, up 263% year-on-year, and it’s a reminder that building out AI at scale involves rewiring entire data centres from the ground up.
AI demand continues to outpace available compute and power capacity, and the numbers reflect that. Consensus has Nvidia’s fiscal 2027 revenue at USD$367 billion, around 70% growth on the year prior. The next-generation Vera Rubin platform is due in the second half of this year, and hyperscalers are already lining up for it, showing the demand story is still well intact.
The signals heading into this print have been solid, with AMD delivering a strong beat and lifting full-year guidance. Intel and TSMC also produced encouraging results, while hyperscalers all reaffirmed or lifted their capex guidance. That sets up a constructive backdrop for Nvidia, but it also means a lot of the good news is already priced in across the sector. The market is looking to Jensen Huang to deliver and raise the bar once again, and if he doesn’t, it won’t just be Nvidia that takes a hit, the whole AI market will take a hit, as will the broader market.
-ENDS-
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